Rossii it is necessary to PVC

Now the volume of a home consumption of S-pvc in the Russian market considerably exceeds volume of the established capacities. Not looking, on entered capacities in 2009-2010 in the Russian market there will be a sharp deficiency of PVC.

Till 2020 internal demand for PVC will increase more, than three times

By 2020 the requirement of the Russian market for S-pvc will reach 1700 thousand tons, that more than three times exceeds existing level of processing. Considering, that the current volume of consumption of S-pvc in Russia aready exceeds volume of the established capacities to cover requirements of home market, the next 15 years input of capacities on production of S-pvc in volume in 1200 thousand tons is required. The volume of consumption of S-pvc predicted by 2020 in Russia, provides annual rates of increase in 2006-2020 at level of 15 %. Growth of demand for PVC in overwhelming volume is covered with growth of production of four groups of production – a window profile, pipes, cable plastic compound and sheets. Influence from growth of consumption and production of other numerous production from PVC on increase in volumes of consumption of the given kind of raw materials is insignificant.

Expected growth of production of a window profile and rigid pipes will lead prompt growth on S-pvc of rigid marks with To = 63-68. Analyzing the branded nomenclature of world manufacturers as base marks in this range it is possible to designate S-pvc with To = 64 and S-pvc with To = 67. Similar base marks are recommended by manufacturers for manufacturing of a window profile and pipes. Other marks in this group are, as a rule, updating of the given marks. Them recommend for manufacturing of others malotonnazhnyih groups of items, more often.

Prospective "boom" of opening of productions of sheets and sheet production from PVC, will cause demand for rigid marks of S-pvc with To = 58-60. However, here it is necessary some clauses. For production of sheet world manufacturers of PVC offer special marks in a range To = 58-66. As a rule, marks of S-pvc with higher number To, offered for manufacturing of sheet production, are updatings of marks with To = 64 and To = 67. Therefore, any volume of potential consumption of marks of S-pvc with To = 58 will be covered for the account of less rigid groups of marks.

New capacities

Within the last five years there is a prompt increase in volumes of processing suspenzionnogo PVC in Russia. And if in relative figures the increase gradually decreases, in absolute it remains stable enough, making about 100 thousand tons a year. In 2003 the volume of processing of S-pvc in the Russian market has increased by 57 % in comparison with level of last year, in 2004 – on 34 %, in 2005 – on 23 %.

In 2006 the volume of consumption of S-pvc has exceeded the established volume of capacities. Production suspenzionnogo PVC at Sterlitamaksky factory "Kaustik" and Volgograd “Plaskard” also have considerably exceeded for a long time nominal capacities. Production on “Sayanskhimplaste” has closely approached to this figure, and only two most melkotonnazhnyih enterprises "Kaprolaktam" and Novomoskovsk AK "Nitrogen" have possibility to increase production without expansion of capacities. Almost all Russian manufacturers (except NAK "Nitrogen") have declared the plans on production expansion. Planned input of new capacities at all companies is planned for 2008. Simultaneously market participants declare intention to continue expansion and to enter in addition new capacities by 2010. As a result the total volume of the established capacities will make on 2008 1005 KT, for 2010 – 1200 KT.

Planned input will pass in two waves. The first expansion will pass in in 2007 (Open Society "Sayanskhimplast", Joint-Stock Company "Kaustik" and Open Society "Plastkard"), the second – in 2010 (Open Society "Sayanskhimplast", Joint-Stock Company "Kaustik" and new production of PVC on the basis of the Kstovksky platform plan Open Society “”Sibur-Neftehim”and Solvey).

The forecast of input of capacities on S-pvc production in Russia in 2007-2011

The enterprise

Existing capacities, thousand tons

Planned capacities by 2007, thousand tons

Planned capacities by 2010, thousand tons

“Sayanskhimplast”, Open Society

244

350

500

“Kaustik”, Joint-Stock Company

120

200

300-450

“Plaskard ‘”, Open Society

60

90

90

Open Society “”Sibur-Neftehim”

(On the basis of factory "Kaprolaktam")

42

42

42

Open Society “"Sibur-holding"

(On the basis of Kstovsky petrochemical factory)

-

-

300

NAK "Nitrogen", Open Society

35

35

-

Total volume of capacities

500

717

1232

For today of Open Society "Sayanskhimplast" it is supplied with the basic raw materials (etilenom) on etilenuprovodu from Angarsk. Propusnaya ability etilenoprovoda 120 thousand tons a year. In 2007 of Open Society "Sayanskhimplast" namereno to construct and place in operation a complex on processing of gas on the basis of hydrocarbons Kovyktinsky gazokondensatnogo deposits. The factory and installation will be included in it on production etilena, the basic component in PVC production gazorazdelitelnyiy. On these purposes the company plans to invest about 300 million dollars. Capacities on S-pvc production it is planned to enter in 2007 (with 250 to 350 thousand tons of production a year) and in 2010 (from 350 thousand tons to 500 thousand tons). Though probably second input will be less significant and will make increase only to 400 thousand tons.

In 2006 of Open Society “” Sibur-Neftehim “it was definitively defined with the strategy of realisation of investment projects on PVC production. The decision on building of new capacities on issue of PVC on the basis of the Kstovsky platform is accepted. As the partner in realisation of the project and the licensee of technology will act one world leaders in production of PVC Solvey. Within the limits of the project the production increase etilena at Kstovsky petrochemical factory with 300 to 430 thousand tons and factory building on production of PVC by capacity of 330 thousand tons in a year is planned. 300 thousand tons will make capacities on production suspenzionnogo PVC, 30 thousand tons – on production emulsionnogo PVC. We will notice, that concerning production volume emulsionnogo PVC between Open Society“ “Sibur-Neftehim” and Solvey proceed discussions. Solvey insists on volume of input of capacities in 30 thousand volume Tons what to supply deliveries only to the largest consumer emulsionnogo PVC in the Russian market – to the manufacturer of floor covers of Joint-Stock Company "Tarkett" (as of today on Joint-Stock Company "Tarkett" emulsionnyiy PVC is delivered from European factories Solvey). Open Society “”Sibur-Neftehim”supports input of capacities in volume of 80 thousand tons that would allow to cover completely requirements of the Russian market, having squeezed out manufacturers thus existing in Russia emulsionnogo PVC (which work on the extremely out-of-date equipment and investments into their reconstruction do not plan). While is more bases to say that point of view Solvey wins. Terms of input of capacities – 2010.

Sterlitamaksky Joint-Stock Company "Kaustik" in 2006 has made the decision on reduction of volume of input of new capacities in comparison with earlier planned. The reduction reasons – the limited volumes of the raw materials, the limited financial sources, and Open Society plans “”Sibur-Neftehim”, that will inevitably strengthen a competitiveness in the Russian market. As a result of Joint-Stock Company" Kaustik "plans to increase by 2007 volumes of capacities with 120 to 200 thousand tons (instead of earlier planned increase in capacities to 300 thousand tons by 2008). Concerning the further increase while there is no definitive definiteness. While there is a question on finishing of capacities to 450 thousand tons or about reduction of plans to 300 thousand tons. There is no definitive definiteness and about terms of realisation of the second stage of expansion and is quite possible, that it will be postponed for later term.

Open Society "Plaskard", most likely, has definitively refused the plans to increase in volume of capacities to 200 thousand tons of production a year. The increase will make from today’s 60 thousand tons (nominal, real – an order of 82 thousand tons at the expense of completions of not requiring capital works) to 90 thousand tons in 2007.

The forecast of input of capacities on S-pvc production in Russia in 2007-2011

In 2009-2010 in the Russian market there will be a sharp deficiency of PVC

The significant part of capacities planned to input, will be started after 2010. By this time deficiency of the internal offer of S-pvc will exceed 300 thousand tons. In 2010 the share of import of S-pvc in a total volume of the Russian consumption of the given raw materials will make about 30 %. Therefore these years it is necessary to expect a sharp rise in prices for PVC, like a situation with a rise in prices for polyethylene in 2006. Besides heavy prices for raw materials, pererabotchikam PVC the deficiency situation bears also weight of other problems. To achieve rhythm of deliveries from abroad it is very difficult owing to various circumstances. Many pererabotchiki will be compelled in this connection from time to time to stop production.

China can not let domestic manufacturers on the Russian market

After 2011 in connection with start of significant capacities on S-pvc production, the situation should be normalised. Pererabotchiki S-pvc will sigh with simplification. In a problem situation there can be already manufacturers. The problem is covered in the Chinese expansion of PVC on the Russian market. Russia which more recently shipped a significant part of made PVC to China, will be the largest importer of the given raw materials. Considering, that for 2009-2010 in a situation of sharp deficiency of PVC in the Russian market, will is debugged treyderskiy business, productions ties with pererabotchikami, it is possible to assume, that to the domestic manufacturer can and not be places in the market.

That the Chinese manufacturers of PVC become serious players in the Russian market to doubt not to have. Changes of a world conjuncture of a supply and demand on PVC in the near future I will are connected with occurrence of the new largest world exporter of PVC what becomes China. Considering geographical affinity to Russia, in the near future it is possible to expect significant expansion of the Chinese PVC on the Russian market. The question consists in terms of formation of China as pure world exporter of PVC. It is possible to name the most remote terms of similar prospect 2010 when the volume of the capacities established in China, 10 times will exceed internal requirements. However occurrence of significant volumes of the Chinese export of PVC in the Russian market it is possible to expect already about 2007-2008 Already now China delivers PVC to Turkey and Iran, remaining in too time net-importer. In any case, during the shortest time China from the largest exporter of the Russian PVC to turn to the importer of PVC to Russia.

The article is granted by Academy of the Conjuncture of the Industrial Markets

Date of the publication 12.12.07


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